The Probability of Luck
- erudite .
- Apr 28, 2022
- 3 min read
By Anoushka Ghosh
We have a plethora of ways to wish someone luck: good luck, best of luck, or break a leg. Luck itself is a mysterious idea in which one believes that the forces of the universe either lead us to our victory or loss. Some people often understand this simple feat of luck to be fate or destiny, which is a whole other topic that is yet to be discussed. Even still, it is quite a thing to ponder whether or not there could be a mathematical explanation for luck. Could there possibly be a hint of probability behind the idea of luck? It’s something that should be investigated!
Jeffrey Rosenthal, author of Knock on Wood: Luck, Chance and the Meaning of Everything, explains that there are two categories of luck which are random luck and “forceful luck”. Random luck, for instance, is showcased if a person’s parents happen to meet at a party, which eventually leads to their birth as a child. That was a random coincidence. Yet, “forceful” luck would be actively predicting and harnessing the power of luck to affect the probability of the same event occurring. It is believed that this forceful luck could be a result of manifestation or beliefs like fate and magic.
Luck is a rather uncomfortable topic for many statisticians. Is there a probability behind the fact that you could win the lottery or is it just a coincidence that you happened to get those exact same numbers? While probability does bring in skill and effort, luck just seems like a coincidence that wouldn’t need the same level of criticality, effort, or skill. Luck seems to work against the whole foundation of probability. It’s when something improbable happens. On the contrary, luck still requires effort to work. For instance, take the event of shooting balls into the hoop. If you hadn't put any effort into the activity, the ball possibly wouldn’t have fallen through the hoop. Therefore, it does require a little effort for luck to take into effect.
Let’s talk statistics. Luck is an unclear and very confusing topic. So, it’s quite hard to put a finger on whether or not there’s a mathematical explanation behind it. Yet, we can look at it from another perspective. Do you understand that when you’re working through a scientific experiment, you have random errors? Random errors are statistical errors that are caused by factors that wholly depend on chance and don't recur. Errors are the difference between the expected value and the actual observed value. This could be caused by external factors or even by you as the experimenter. You may be unconsciously increasing your chances of a certain result.
In order to better understand this, mathematicians and statisticians are trying to ensure that they devise a model that accounts for all appropriate variables, measures the observed variance and reduces the number of errors procured. Instead of thinking that the phenomenon that occurred was “pure luck”, there could be a reason behind that same event occurring, probability that puts the odds in your favor (or not too). Although this might be true, it’s more likely that an event would occur just at random. It’s a random event that happens.
For example, cancer is the outcome of a random mutation. It doesn’t depend on a factor caused by the person, or even perhaps “something that was done in the past life”. Although there are a number of other factors such as inheritance or environmental factors, it can also be solely based on luck. Research conducted by Johns Hopkins University has shown that two-thirds of mutations in cancer are due to mistakes that occur in the genes which code for specific proteins, resulting in cancer. Therefore, it can also be a random mutation that resulted in cancer.
The probability of luck is a complex occurrence - a random error unknown to humans. It could either affect us positively or negatively. As we speak, a number of staticians are racking their brains to understand the phenomenon of luck, and how it comes to be. Yet, luck itself is also out of our control. So, the next time you wonder what you’ve done wrong to deserve this. Just remember: It’s not your fault; it’s just bad luck.
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